Experts differ strongly: how long will the world's oil supplies last? Have we reached peak-production or is it another two decades away? Although we feel there is evidence that we are indeed past peak-production, there is a more important question to ask: will oil remain affordable? It will not.

Oil prices are influenced by many more factors than just supply. Equally important are the parties that control these supplies: governments, cartels, dictators, oil-companies etc. And then there are forces that are even beyond their control: wars, political instability, natural disasters and even shortages in oil tanker capacity.

Over the last years we saw such a combination of 'incidents': war in Iraq (obstructing oil production), three hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in one month (seriously damaging drilling platforms), bankruptcy for one of Russia's largest oil companies Yukos (causing uncertainty in the market), Shell announcing it had overstated its oil reserves for years by almost 20% (raising more questions about the world oil supply), Russia threatening to cut supplies to Europe and finally an enormous increase in oil demand from China and India.

None of the factors mentioned above will cause a rise in the price of oil by itself. However, any combination of them can and will result in abrupt spikes or even sustained higher levels. Then, when supply eventually will no longer be able to keep up with demand, prices will never come down again.

Expensive oil then becomes unaffordable oil. First just for the poorer but as prices rise even further, oil will become unavailable to the majority. It is important to realize that almost all energy consumption is fed by oil and gas. Whether it's driving your car, heating your home or turning on a light, you are burning up fossil fuels. Imagine life without it.

Whether oil prices will jump next year or somewhere in the next two decades is irrelevant. The fact that it is inevitable, is fundamental.

In order for households and businesses to have predictable energy costs and maintain their standard of living, they will need to become less dependent on oil and natural gas. Electrical energy and heat will thus have to be produced from other than fossil fuels.